#30DayChartChallenge Día 12: Gov Data Day! Explorando la distribución del spread 10Y-2Y del Tesoro USA (datos de FRED desde 1976).

Este histograma/densidad va más allá del valor diario: muestra la *probabilidad* histórica de cada nivel del spread. ¡Clave para entender expectativas económicas!

Puntos clave:
* Modo principal > 0 (curva normal es lo más común).
* ¡La inversión (<0, línea discontinua) tiene una probabilidad no trivial! Es la famosa señal pre-recesión. La distribución nos dice cuán "normal" es esa señal en perspectiva histórica.
* La forma general revela info sobre la dinámica de tipos.

Una visualización sobre la estructura probabilística de un indicador líder fundamental.

#rstats #ggplot2 #quantmod #grid
Código/Repo: https://t.ly/0RDmK

Trump’s tariffs may be reduced but their impact will be felt in the UK and beyond https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/10/donald-trump-tariffs-impact-uk-beyond #USeconomicgrowthandrecession #Trumpadministration #Economicgrowth(GDP) #Internationaltrade #Globaleconomy #Interestrates #Trumptariffs #NatWestGroup #ThamesWater #Economics #Inflation #Business #Fintech #Tariffs #Shein #Bonds

President Trump called on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

Trump’s Egg Price Solutions: What You Need to Know

https://munaeem.de/2025/03/25/trumps-egg-price-solutions-what-you-need-to-know/

The Houston Association of Realtors says the region’s real estate market is beginning to balance out, favoring buyers.

https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/housing/2025/03/21/516637/houstons-real-estate-market-shifting-in-favor-of-buyers/

US #CentralBank holds #InterestRates steady

#TheFed said it will slow the pace of the drawdown of its balance sheet, as it faces challenges in assessing #market liquidity….

Stmnt: "The Cmte will continue reducing its holdings of #Treasury #securities & agency #debt & #mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning in April, the Cmte will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B."

#economy
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-meeting-live-us-stocks-open-higher-investors-eye-rate-decision-2025-03-19/

#Republicans lost the #middleclass #economy.

"Costco CFO sounds alarm on consumer trend
Retailers could be in for a rough 2025.
70% of consumers say inflation has hurt their household finances.

And compounding matters is that #interestrates remain stubbornly high due to sticky #inflation. In January the Federal Reserve hit pause on interest rate cuts. And it’s likely to hold rates steady when it meets in mid-March"
#premarket
#recession
#Trump
#tariff
#tariffs
https://www.thestreet.com/retail/costco-cfo-sounds-alarm-on-consumer-trend

Trump performing as well as Liz Truss in his first few days

- Tariffs which caused a stock market slump, hitting pension funds
- which will also lead to inflation
- meaning the Fed will have to raise interest rates
- leading to increases In mortgage payments
- and an economic slow down

SO MUCH WINNING !!

Rents jumped 4.6% from last year, accounting for nearly 30% of January's #inflation increase. A finance professor explains why proposed #tariffs on Canadian lumber could further drive up homebuilding costs and rents. https://theconversation.com/inflation-249815
#interestrates

Dollar-yen exchange rate falls to 150 yen range, hitting two-and-a-half-month low amid Fed QT pause speculation and BOJ rate hike expectations
#YonhapInfomax #DollarYenExchangeRate #FederalReserve #BankOfJapan #QuantitativeTightening #InterestRates #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=51527

Hmmm.... annual inflation in January rose from 2.5% in December to 3% in January.... pushing it well above the BoE's target.

Andrew Bailey will emphasise the persistence of 'inflationary pressures', but this also suggests even on its own terms the sado-monetarists policy of high interest rates is not really working.

This might tell us inflation is being (partly) imported, but also that interest rate policy is not (actually) about inflation but about 'disciplining' workers!

Today's headlines will say wage growth (year on year) has risen to 6% (although once we allow for inflation, growth in real wages is nothing like that).

But the real issue is are real wages back to what they were before 2008, allowing workers to make up for a lost 15 years of falling living standards?
The answer is, for many, no!

So when Andrew Bailey & Rachel Reeves warn us that this stokes 'inflationary pressures' recall whose ever increasing wealth is ignored!

Pathological LNP liars like Peter Dutton, Jane Hume and Angus Taylor are so unaccustomed to being fact-checked they turn into spluttering stuttering messes when faced with the smallest amount of push-back.