⚯ Michel de Cryptadamus ⚯<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://masto.ai/@GhostOnTheHalfShell" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>GhostOnTheHalfShell</span></a></span> the explanation i've settled on for myself about the various japanese carry trades is pretty simple:</p><p>1. ever since the 1989 crash Bank of Japan has loaned out money at insanely low rates (0% or even negative sometimes IIRC)</p><p>2. people like to borrow money from bank of japan and invest it in other stuff (like US treasuries) and pick up a small rate of return (e.g. if a japanese bank is charging 0.5% and treasuries pay 2% you can make 1.5% "for free")</p><p>3. because the rate of return is low people juice their returns by levering the fuck up and borrowing $50 for every $1 they're actually putting in</p><p>4. this amount of leverage means that even small movements in the value of the asset (e.g. US treasuries) blows people up (e.g. at 50x leverage a 2% move is death)</p><p>the specifics of each carry trade are hard to follow but BOJ has been regarded as a ticking time bomb for a long time now</p><p><a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/BondMarket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BondMarket</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/economics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>economics</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/economy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>economy</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/treasuries" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>treasuries</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/uspol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>uspol</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/Japan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Japan</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/BankOfJapan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BankOfJapan</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/BOJ" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BOJ</span></a> <a href="https://universeodon.com/tags/carrytrade" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>carrytrade</span></a></p>
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Yonhap Infomax News<p>Dollar-yen exchange rate falls to 150 yen range, hitting two-and-a-half-month low amid Fed QT pause speculation and BOJ rate hike expectations<br><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/YonhapInfomax" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>YonhapInfomax</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/DollarYenExchangeRate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>DollarYenExchangeRate</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/FederalReserve" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>FederalReserve</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/BankOfJapan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BankOfJapan</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/QuantitativeTightening" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>QuantitativeTightening</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/InterestRates" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>InterestRates</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Economics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Economics</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/FinancialMarkets" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>FinancialMarkets</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Banking" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Banking</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Securities" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Securities</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Bonds" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Bonds</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/StockMarket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>StockMarket</span></a> <br><a href="https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=51527" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">en.infomaxai.com/news/articleV</span><span class="invisible">iew.html?idxno=51527</span></a></p>
The Japan Times<p>It is time for the BOJ to communicate more honestly — based on data and facts — and focus its efforts on what a central bank can realistically achieve. <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2025/01/28/japan/boj-communication-challenges/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">japantimes.co.jp/commentary/20</span><span class="invisible">25/01/28/japan/boj-communication-challenges/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/commentary" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>commentary</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/japan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>japan</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/kazuoueda" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>kazuoueda</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/bankofjapan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>bankofjapan</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/boj" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>boj</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/monetarypolicy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>monetarypolicy</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/japaneseeconomy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>japaneseeconomy</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/inflation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>inflation</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/yen" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>yen</span></a></p>
The Japan Times<p>A long-awaited autopsy of the lost decades reveals that the Bank of Japan governor is eager to move on. But the potential for missteps is great. <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2025/01/22/japan/uedas-doctrine-boj/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">japantimes.co.jp/commentary/20</span><span class="invisible">25/01/22/japan/uedas-doctrine-boj/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/commentary" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>commentary</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/japan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>japan</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/kazuoueda" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>kazuoueda</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/bankofjapan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>bankofjapan</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/boj" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>boj</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/yen" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>yen</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/monetarypolicy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>monetarypolicy</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/inflation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>inflation</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/fed" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>fed</span></a></p>
The Japan Times<p>A long-awaited autopsy of the lost decades reveals that the Bank of Japan governor is eager to move on. But the potential for missteps is great. <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2025/01/22/japan/uedas-doctrine-for-boj/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">japantimes.co.jp/commentary/20</span><span class="invisible">25/01/22/japan/uedas-doctrine-for-boj/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/commentary" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>commentary</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/japan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>japan</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/kazuoueda" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>kazuoueda</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/bankofjapan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>bankofjapan</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/boj" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>boj</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/yen" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>yen</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/monetarypolicy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>monetarypolicy</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/inflation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>inflation</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/fed" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>fed</span></a></p>
The Japan Times<p>Japanese stocks are poised to reach new record highs this year, driven by corporate governance reforms and robust earnings. <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/01/06/markets/stocks-2025-outlook/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">japantimes.co.jp/business/2025</span><span class="invisible">/01/06/markets/stocks-2025-outlook/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=mastodon</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/business" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>business</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/markets" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>markets</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/stocks" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>stocks</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/nikkei" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>nikkei</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/japaneseeconomy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>japaneseeconomy</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/bankofjapan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>bankofjapan</span></a></p>
The Japan Times<p>The Bank of Japan's original Hiroshima branch survived the atomic bombing. One man made it his mission to tell the story of the building as well as the people who worked there when the bomb was dropped. <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/19/japan/society/hiroshima-atomic-bombing-building/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/</span><span class="invisible">19/japan/society/hiroshima-atomic-bombing-building/</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/japan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>japan</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/society" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>society</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/hiroshima" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>hiroshima</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/atomicbombings" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>atomicbombings</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/bankofjapan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>bankofjapan</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/wwii" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wwii</span></a></p>
The Japan Times<p>Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s announcement that he is not running in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election next month unsettled stocks already hit hard by a surprise rate increase by the Bank of Japan just two weeks earlier. <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/08/14/markets/kishida-shock-market/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">japantimes.co.jp/business/2024</span><span class="invisible">/08/14/markets/kishida-shock-market/</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/business" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>business</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/markets" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>markets</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/fumiokishida" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>fumiokishida</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/stocks" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>stocks</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/yen" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>yen</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/bankofjapan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>bankofjapan</span></a></p>
The Japan Times<p>While a weaker yen is seen pushing up fiscal 2024 profits by 1.9% at large companies with capital of ¥1 billion or more, it is expected to have a negative impact of 1.3% for small companies with capital of 10 million to ¥100 million. <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/06/23/companies/impacts-of-weaker-yen/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">japantimes.co.jp/business/2024</span><span class="invisible">/06/23/companies/impacts-of-weaker-yen/</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/business" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>business</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/companies" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>companies</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/bankofjapan" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>bankofjapan</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/yen" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>yen</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/inflation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>inflation</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/japaneseeconomy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>japaneseeconomy</span></a></p>
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