I had to look a little more into the Quebec specific polls to see if there were any trends there, so I recreated the same graph with Quebec polls.

It is hard to make out from the very noisy Bloc and CPC numbers but the Bloc did go below 20%. These are Liaison provincial polls which appear to be consistently the lowest for the Bloc.

There doesn't really seem to be any discernible trend for the Bloc or CPC. Both are fluctuating wildly between pollsters. But the Liberal and the NDP numbers are showing a decline and slight upward trend respectively.

I'll post these Quebec numbers with the national numbers tomorrow and going forward just to keep an eye on it.

@chris

It seems likely he will be removed if this election plays out as the current conservative pollsters are pushing: they are clearly pushing the narrative of "if not #CPC, then #LPC at any cost!"

Which I find extremely telling. Do we really want to elect Angus Reid's second choice after #PP?

Reality is: most #BC and #AB ridings are more likely to elect #NDP or CPC than LPC. This may be true in #SK & #MB, and elsewhere. We need clean data from the sources, not Fournier's weighted model.

In contrast, the Liberal candidate in my riding is a residential school survivor:

#LPC #SimilkameenSouthOkanaganWestKootenay
#Elxn45

https://www.castanet.net/news/Penticton/541668/Liberals-name-Gloria-Morgan-as-Similkameen-South-Okanagan-West-Kootenay-candidate

Updated for polls up to April 1.

Edit: The NDP support is definitely off the lows and is starting to impact seat predictions. We can see it in Manitoba especially. Not so much Ontario, but races in BC are also starting to become competitive where they looked like a CPC sweep.

Probably a function of the local races/candidates coming into focus plus voters crystallizing opinions on Trump and applying to their ridings.

H/t @northernlights

Liberated from YouTube; new #LPC ad featuring Mark Carney and Mike Myers.

I just trolled around the four English party websites.
I will avoid completing their address so one doesn’t get previewed but here they are fyi:

Conservative. Ca
Liberal. Ca
NDP. Ca
Green Party.Ca

Interesting differences.

The #cpc have no candidates listed. Only messages from Dear Leader, and it’s sparse. Mostly just his transcribed words. The ironic part is I have seen door hangers for the CPC candidate in my riding, but no idea what his name is. If it is anything like the provincial election, I expect MASSIVE CPC signage in my riding. It didn’t work provincially… we’ll see what happens now.

The #LPC have many candidates listed and ready, lots of content. No one mentioned for my riding. (They are not generally a contender)

The #NDP has almost all candidates listed but ironically, not mine even though I just received a sign, but the site is ready with similarly lots of content.

The #GPC has only a handful of candidates, but our local candidate @chrismarkevich is listed.

With such an incredibly short campaign there will not be much time for parties to fill out the details. No doubt everyone will be hyper focused on GOTV efforts. Advance voting will begin in just a couple weeks!

Edit: just counted candidates on each page.
CPC: 0
LPC: 185
NDP: 111
GPC: 80
There are 343 ridings.
#elxn45 #NDP #CPC #canPoli #cdnpoli #elxn45

@lazarukb

I'm voting. And I am looking forward to a great Partnership between Mark Carney and Jagmeet Singh, in the manner of Canada's best, most historic government.

Lester Pearson / Tommy Douglas

Peacekeepers, Blue Berets, Universal HealthCare. A partnership that created Canada out of the dominion.

So congratulations to the #LPC for choosing a good partner. Congratulations to Mark Carney.

Proportional Representation.

I'm voting #NDP
Defend Canada, Elbows Up.