i try to avoid giving oxygen to the crypto prediction markets like #Kalshi *but* i thought it was heartening that those markets currently put the odds of #ElonMusk losing the #Wisconsin judicial race he's pouring tens of millions of dollars into at 86%.

This is easily the most important election in the US for quite a long time to come and it looks like MAGA is going to go down in flames.
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwiscotus/wi-state-supreme-court

People began #betting Thursday on which political party would win control of Congress in the November elections
after a judge’s ruling allowing the wagers
— the only ones to be legally approved by a U.S. jurisdiction.

New York startup company #Kalshi began taking what amounts to bets on the outcome of the November congressional elections after a judge refused to block them from doing so.
The ruling by U.S. District Court Judge Jia Cobb in Washington enabled the company, at least temporarily, to offer prediction contracts across the country
— essentially yes-or-no bets
— on which party will win control of the #Senate and the #House in November.
“The Kalshi community just made history, and I know we are only getting started,” said #Tarek #Mansour, a co-founder of the company.
“Now is finally the time to allow these markets to show the world just how powerful they are at providing signal amidst the noise, and giving us more truth about what the future holds.”
https://apnews.com/article/betting-on-elections-kalshi-gambling-trump-harris-882f1e6e4f434f0e6ac6e5985a5583ce