💧🌏 Greg Cocks<p>Avalanche Debris Detection From Sentinel-2 Data Using Fuzzy Machine Learning And Colour Spaces For The Indian Himalaya<br>--<br><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025.2488532" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2025.</span><span class="invisible">2488532</span></a> <-- shared paper<br>--<br><a href="https://techhub.social/tags/GIS" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>GIS</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/spatial" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>spatial</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/mapping" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>mapping</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/snowavalanches" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>snowavalanches</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/snow" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>snow</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/avalanches" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>avalanches</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/machinelearning" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>machinelearning</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/fuzzyclassification" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>fuzzyclassification</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/SVM" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SVM</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>AI</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/randomforest" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>randomforest</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/model" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>model</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/modeling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>modeling</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/risk" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>risk</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/hazard" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>hazard</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/massmovement" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>massmovement</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/engineeringgeology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>engineeringgeology</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/remotesensing" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>remotesensing</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/earthobservation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>earthobservation</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/imagery" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>imagery</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/spatialanalysis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>spatialanalysis</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/spatiotemporal" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>spatiotemporal</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/change" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>change</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/debris" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>debris</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/detection" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>detection</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/satellite" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>satellite</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/sentinel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>sentinel</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Himalaya" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Himalaya</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Himalayas" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Himalayas</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/performance" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>performance</span></a></p>
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#forecasting
1 post · 1 participant · 0 posts today
Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQF<p>Bottom line: R² can be informative in static regression, but in forecasting, it's a distraction at best — and deceptive at worst.</p><p><a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/TimeSeries" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>TimeSeries</span></a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/Forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Forecasting</span></a></p>
Tomasz Woźniak<p>Having correctly predicted the last cut, my forecasting system has settled on an uncontroversial HOLD 🛑 prediction for the RBA’s April meeting. Regarding the interest rate’s values for the next year’s horizon, one needs to consider the world’s political uncertainty and its impact on inflation and economic activity in Australia. Providing the mid-term cash rate trajectory will not be possible before another two or three rate cuts. 📉 </p><p>🌐 <a href="https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">forecasting-cash-rate.github.i</span><span class="invisible">o/</span></a></p><p><a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/rstats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>rstats</span></a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/cashrate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>cashrate</span></a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a></p>
RaymondPierreL3<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://zirk.us/@ChrisMayLA6" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>ChrisMayLA6</span></a></span> <br><a href="https://aus.social/tags/Forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Forecasting</span></a> (economics) is fraught with inaccuracies (as they must be in an irrational world) and yet, it is a vital task in setting <a href="https://aus.social/tags/budgets" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>budgets</span></a>, an ungrateful task. The problem lies not with the frail forecasts but with the decisions based on over optimistic outcomes and a desire to achieve, politically speaking, what few other govt have. </p><p>I relate it to <a href="https://aus.social/tags/project" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>project</span></a> management planning phases with spend lines and timings - very few (if any at all depending on the sector concerned) live up to their painstakingly put together Gantt charts. </p><p>And therein lies the lessons that govts seem clueless about.</p>
Timothy Schwinghamer (he/him)<p>Fired <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>climate</span></a> scientist Tom Di Liberto says lives are at risk from <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/extremeweather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>extremeweather</span></a> as more cuts loom over the U.S. government agency responsible for <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a> and much more. Di Liberto lost his job as part of a massive purge by the Trump administration, and worries the layoffs will not only cost the U.S. more money, but will cripple weather forecasting across the continent, leaving many people vulnerable to <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/NaturalHazards" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NaturalHazards</span></a></p><p>What On Earth with Laura Lynch - <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-429-what-on-earth/clip/16134160-trump-slashing-jobs-noaa.-what-wrong" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-429</span><span class="invisible">-what-on-earth/clip/16134160-trump-slashing-jobs-noaa.-what-wrong</span></a></p>
Zhi Zhu 🕸️<p>DOGE moves to cancel <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/NOAA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NOAA</span></a> leases on key weather buildings<br><a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/03/03/doge-noaa-weather-building-leases-trump" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">axios.com/2025/03/03/doge-noaa</span><span class="invisible">-weather-building-leases-trump</span></a></p><p>"One of the buildings is the nerve center for generating national <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> forecasts.</p><p>It was designed to integrate multiple <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a> centers in one building to improve operating <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/efficiency" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>efficiency</span></a>. It houses telecommunications equipment to send weather <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/data" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>data</span></a> & forecasts across the <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/US" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>US</span></a> & abroad...</p><p>Elon Musk's <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/DOGE" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>DOGE</span></a> has been working through the <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/GSA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>GSA</span></a> to cancel <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/government" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>government</span></a> leases"</p><p><a href="https://newsie.social/tags/Musk" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Musk</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/Coup" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Coup</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/Trump" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Trump</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/USPol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>USPol</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/News" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>News</span></a></p>
AI6YR Ben<p>Axios: DOGE moves to cancel NOAA leases on key weather buildings</p><p>"...two pivotal centers for weather forecasting will soon have their leases canceled, sources told Axios.</p><p>Why it matters: One of the buildings is the nerve center for generating national weather forecasts. ..."</p><p><a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/03/03/doge-noaa-weather-building-leases-trump" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">axios.com/2025/03/03/doge-noaa</span><span class="invisible">-weather-building-leases-trump</span></a></p><p><a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/wx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wx</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/disaster" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>disaster</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a></p>
O=C=O<p>Some warnings about weather data when using --><br><a href="https://earth.nullschool.net" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">earth.nullschool.net</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p><p>Text is:</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Weather</span></a> and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>climate</span></a> data shown on this website and countless others are at risk.</p><p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (<a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/NOAA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NOAA</span></a>) is the U.S. agency responsible for global weather <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a>, <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/hurricane" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>hurricane</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>prediction</span></a>, <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ocean" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ocean</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/observation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>observation</span></a>, and many other services vital to public safety. Its <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/satellites" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>satellites</span></a>, <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/supercomputers" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>supercomputers</span></a>, and research teams provide essential <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/data" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>data</span></a> that help us understand our <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/planet" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>planet</span></a> and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/protect" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>protect</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/lives" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>lives</span></a>.</p><p>On February 27, the new U.S. administration initiated mass firings at NOAA. These actions are <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/unethical" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>unethical</span></a> and deeply <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/disruptive" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>disruptive</span></a> to the talented <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/scientists" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>scientists</span></a> and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/engineers" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>engineers</span></a> who dedicate themselves to the public good. The firings, along with expected budget cuts, have serious implications for the availability and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/quality" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>quality</span></a> of <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/WeatherForecasts" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WeatherForecasts</span></a> produced by the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/UnitedStates" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>UnitedStates</span></a>. They must be reversed immediately.</p><p>Much of the data on this website is downloaded directly from NOAA's servers. In this environment of uncertainty, access could be <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/disrupted" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>disrupted</span></a> at any time. While I'll strive to keep all features on this website functional and switch to alternative data sources if necessary, some datasets have no substitute if they go offline.</p><p>If this concerns you, speak up. Share on <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/SocialMedia" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SocialMedia</span></a>. And if you're in the U.S., contact your representatives.</p>
Gueule d'atmosphère<p>Big day at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting. AI (not LLM!) weather model becomes operational after extensive testing showing improvements over traditional explicitly physics-based models in some important use cases. Both approaches remain warranted for the time being.</p><p>EDIT: to be clear, I am not affiliated with ECMWF</p><p><a href="https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2025/ecmwfs-ai-forecasts-become-operational" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centr</span><span class="invisible">e/news/2025/ecmwfs-ai-forecasts-become-operational</span></a></p><p><a href="https://mastodon.green/tags/meteorology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>meteorology</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.green/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.green/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.green/tags/ai" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ai</span></a></p>
roque (ロク)<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://social.growyourown.services/@FediFollows" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>FediFollows</span></a></span> for Japan: <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mastodon.social/@mizu" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>mizu</span></a></span> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a></p>
FediFollows<p>When people first started joining the Fediverse in large numbers, a lot of them asked "Where are the weather accounts?"</p><p>If you're one of those people, please check out the FediMeteo project at:</p><p>➡️ <a href="https://fedimeteo.com" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">fedimeteo.com</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p><p>It has weather forecast accounts for cities and towns across almost all of Europe and North America, plus Australia, New Zealand and Japan.</p><p>To follow an account, click on a town or city, then copy-paste its address into the search box in Mastodon etc.</p><p><a href="https://social.growyourown.services/tags/Weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Weather</span></a> <a href="https://social.growyourown.services/tags/Forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Forecasting</span></a></p>
Tomasz Woźniak<p>I have been forecasting RBA's decisions about the cash rate since October 2022⏳ answering the survey by <a href="https://www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="">finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate</span><span class="invisible"></span></a> The 3️⃣ major wins were that my forecasting system predicted:<br>+ 9 months ahead that the cash rate will be up to 4.1% by mid-2023 📈<br>+ 20 out of 24 RBA's decisions correctly ✅<br>+ identified the first CUT after over a year of no movements on the cash rate 📉</p><p>Good time series econometrics is working! Find my forecasts at: <a href="https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">forecasting-cash-rate.github.i</span><span class="invisible">o/</span></a></p><p><a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/cashrate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>cashrate</span></a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/rstats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>rstats</span></a></p>
Tomasz Woźniak<p>Woohoo! ✨🌟 I'm so happy that my <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a> system predicted the CUT 📉 Change-point forecasting is difficult and I never took it for granted that the system will identify the CUT after over a year of no movements on <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/cashrate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>cashrate</span></a>. But it managed: <a href="https://fosstodon.org/@tomaszwozniak/113990476075526687" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">fosstodon.org/@tomaszwozniak/1</span><span class="invisible">13990476075526687</span></a></p><p><a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/rstats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>rstats</span></a></p>
Tomasz Woźniak<p>The cash rate has not moved since October 2023. So, how come the forecasts may indicate a CUT for the February meeting?❓❓</p><p><a href="https://fosstodon.org/@tomaszwozniak/113990476075526687" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">fosstodon.org/@tomaszwozniak/1</span><span class="invisible">13990476075526687</span></a></p><p>✨ That's bc bond yield curve modelling includes rates on bonds of different maturities that contain whole lot of information, also about market participant expectations. And it seems, we all expect a CUT. 📉✅</p><p>This or the next time 😎 </p><p><a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/cashrate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>cashrate</span></a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/rstats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>rstats</span></a></p>
Tomasz Woźniak<p>Cherish the day! ✨💫 My forecasting system indicates a decisive CUT 📉. The predictive intervals from the pooled forecast, including from all bond yield curve models, for the first time in years, do not include the current value of the cash rate. This seems in line with what the newest data releases, including inflation readings, suggest. ✅ </p><p>You can access these forecasts at <a href="https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">forecasting-cash-rate.github.i</span><span class="invisible">o/</span></a></p><p><a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/cashrate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>cashrate</span></a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/rstats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>rstats</span></a></p>
evan<p>While out for <a href="https://social.coop/tags/IceCreamForBreakfastDay" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>IceCreamForBreakfastDay</span></a>, we ran into a parent from our wider social circle. For small talk, he asked if I thought the <a href="https://social.coop/tags/groundhog" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>groundhog</span></a> would get it right this year. </p><p>I don't think he expected me to have such passionate opinions on the subject. 😅</p><p>(See NOAA website linked here:<br><a href="https://fosstodon.org/@AkaSci/113931156320456300" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">fosstodon.org/@AkaSci/11393115</span><span class="invisible">6320456300</span></a>)</p><p><a href="https://social.coop/tags/GroundhogsDay" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>GroundhogsDay</span></a> <a href="https://social.coop/tags/puxatawnyPhil" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>puxatawnyPhil</span></a> <a href="https://social.coop/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a> <a href="https://social.coop/tags/wx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wx</span></a></p>
John Vaccaro (johniac)<p>SciTech Chronicles. . . . . . . . .Jan 31, 2025</p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/stc013125" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">bit.ly/stc013125</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p><p><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/wildfire" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wildfire</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/modelling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>modelling</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>AI</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Forecasting</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Firefighters" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Firefighters</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/microalga" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>microalga</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/footprint" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>footprint</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Chlorella" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Chlorella</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/bioreactors" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>bioreactors</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/production" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>production</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/stem" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>stem</span></a>-cells <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/lab" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>lab</span></a>-grown <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/stable" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>stable</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/clinical" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>clinical</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/failure" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>failure</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/scratching" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>scratching</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/aggravates" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>aggravates</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/inflammation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>inflammation</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/eczema" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>eczema</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/dermatitis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>dermatitis</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/NAAREA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NAAREA</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/3D" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>3D</span></a>-Printed <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Phoenix" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Phoenix</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Nikon" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Nikon</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/SLM" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SLM</span></a></p>
💧🌏 Greg Cocks<p>NOAA/USGS Water Map – National Water Model<br>--<br><a href="https://water.noaa.gov/map" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">water.noaa.gov/map</span><span class="invisible"></span></a> <-- shared web map<br>--<br><a href="https://water.noaa.gov/about/nwm" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="">water.noaa.gov/about/nwm</span><span class="invisible"></span></a> <-- shared NWM ‘About’ page<br>--<br>[ the post’s author did the spatial analysis to get the first round of elevation values of the majority of the 10s of millions offshore points, etc - <a href="http://alturl.com/3nrbm" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">http://</span><span class="">alturl.com/3nrbm</span><span class="invisible"></span></a> ]<br><a href="https://techhub.social/tags/GIS" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>GIS</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/spatial" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>spatial</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/mapping" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>mapping</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/model" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>model</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/modeling" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>modeling</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/NationalWaterModel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NationalWaterModel</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/NOAA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NOAA</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/NWM" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NWM</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/FIM" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>FIM</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/water" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>water</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/hydrology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>hydrology</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/framework" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>framework</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/streamflow" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>streamflow</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/realtime" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>realtime</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/observed" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>observed</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/watercycle" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>watercycle</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/rainfall" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>rainfall</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/precipitation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>precipitation</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/snowmelt" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>snowmelt</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/overlandflow" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>overlandflow</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/flood" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>flood</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/flooding" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>flooding</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/floodinnundationmodel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>floodinnundationmodel</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/FIM" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>FIM</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/infiltration" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>infiltration</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/bigdata" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>bigdata</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/supercomputer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>supercomputer</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/risk" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>risk</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/hazard" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>hazard</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/mitigation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>mitigation</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/warning" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>warning</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/warningsystems" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>warningsystems</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/threat" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>threat</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/guidance" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>guidance</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/NationalWeatherService" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NationalWeatherService</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/forecast" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecast</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/meteorology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>meteorology</span></a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/river" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>river</span></a><br>@NOAA @USGS <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://techhub.social/@nws" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>nws</span></a></span></p>
Rami Krispin :unverified:<p>Finally, it is illegal to use forecasts without prediction intervals 🤣</p><p><a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/timeseries" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>timeseries</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a></p>
beSpacific<p>About 100 <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/meteorologists" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>meteorologists</span></a> around the US are saying goodbye after getting <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/fired" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>fired</span></a>. Patrece Dayto & Kevin Orpurt were among dozens of meteorologists saying farewell to viewers. TV stations affected R owned by <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/billionaire" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>billionaire</span></a> Byron Allen who also owns The <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/WeatherChannel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WeatherChannel</span></a>. In a statement, Allen's TV group says weather <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>forecasting</span></a> at local station level is being taken over by The Weather Channel. <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/local-tv-meteorologists-bid-farewell-223704794.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">yahoo.com/news/local-tv-meteor</span><span class="invisible">ologists-bid-farewell-223704794.html</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/climatecrisis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>climatecrisis</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/environment" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>environment</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/disasters" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>disasters</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/wildfires" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wildfires</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/censorship" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>censorship</span></a> <a href="https://newsie.social/tags/maga" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>maga</span></a></p>
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