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#btw21

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Agathe Mulot<p>Bei der letzten <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Bundestagswahl" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Bundestagswahl</span></a> habe ich, wie immer, für die <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Kandidatin" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Kandidatin</span></a> der <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/linken" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>linken</span></a> gestimmt. In der Wahlkabine dachte ich: ihr kann ich vertrauen nie <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Krieg" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Krieg</span></a> zu machen, nie <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Waffen" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Waffen</span></a> zu liefern, falls es dazu kommt (es kam!)<br>Es war die letzte <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Wahl" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Wahl</span></a> für meine Mutter, die seit <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Schr%C3%B6der" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Schröder</span></a> nicht mehr <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/SPD" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SPD</span></a> wählte. Sie sagte: Ich habe <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/HeikeHaensel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>HeikeHaensel</span></a> gewählt. die <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/linkspartei" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>linkspartei</span></a> brachte sie nicht über die Lippen. Ich habe mich gefreut<br><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/btw25" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>btw25</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/btw21" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>btw21</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/lolspd" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>lolspd</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/protest" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>protest</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/frieden" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>frieden</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/peace" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>peace</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/pax" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>pax</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/gehwaehlen" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>gehwaehlen</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/nomerz" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>nomerz</span></a></p>
mq86mq<p>Hab jetzt eine genauere <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Prognose" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Prognose</span></a> zur <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Wiederholungswahl" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Wiederholungswahl</span></a> in Berlin nach <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Wahlkreise" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Wahlkreise</span></a>⁠n. <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Wahlbeteiligung" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Wahlbeteiligung</span></a> nach <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Wahlscheine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Wahlscheine</span></a>⁠n und ansonsten einfach die Differenz der <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/AGHWahl" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>AGHWahl</span></a> 2023−2021 auf die <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Bundestagswahl" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Bundestagswahl</span></a> 2021 wahlkreisweise draufgerechnet (nur die betroffenen <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Wahlbezirke" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Wahlbezirke</span></a>). Unten die Differenzen zu 2021. Demnach würden nur <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Linke" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Linke</span></a> (deutlich) und <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Gr%C3%BCne" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Grüne</span></a> (knapp) 1 Sitz an <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Hessen" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Hessen</span></a> bzw. <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/NRW" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NRW</span></a> verlieren. <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/btw24" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>btw24</span></a> <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/btwbe24" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>btwbe24</span></a> <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/btwbe21" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>btwbe21</span></a> <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/btw21" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>btw21</span></a> <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/WahlThread" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WahlThread</span></a> [1/2]</p>
mq86mq<p>… aber sinnvollerweise käme wohl trotzdem ein zentraler Wahlkreis mit den ganzen grünen <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Hochburg" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Hochburg</span></a>⁠en raus. <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/M%C3%BCnchen" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>München</span></a>-Nord müsste <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Schlei%C3%9Fheim" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Schleißheim</span></a> und <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Garching" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Garching</span></a> nehmen, und <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/CSU" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CSU</span></a> minus <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Gr%C3%BCne" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Grüne</span></a> wär dann nach <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/btw21" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>btw21</span></a>-Erst- und -<a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Zweitstimmen" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Zweitstimmen</span></a> (nach <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/Erststimmen" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Erststimmen</span></a> war die <a href="https://sueden.social/tags/SPD" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SPD</span></a> in Nord und Ost näher dran):</p><p>−12.25 −16.55 Mitte<br>+10.04  +5.69 Nord<br>+15.32  +6.08 Ost<br> +1.71  −0.75 Süd<br> +5.02  +0.16 West<br>+18.69 +14.13 Landkreis</p><p>Vor einigen Jahren hätte man die »Vorteile« typischerweise noch andersrum gesehn. [2/5]</p>
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